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Watched a juice bar in Bend fold after 11 months, and the owner's one line stuck with me
Stopped by this cold press place on Galveston Ave every week for a year, and one day the doors were just locked with a note taped up. Ran into the owner at the hardware store a month later and he said they never tested if people would pay $9 a bottle twice a week, they just assumed it. I run a landscaping crew and now before I buy any new mower or truck I ask myself if the jobs are already booked to pay for it. Anyone else here learn a money lesson from watching somebody else's business go under?
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andrewrobinson27d ago
But is that really the same thing though? The juice guy's problem wasn't that he skipped a test, it's that a cold press juice bar in Bend was never gonna work at $9 a bottle no matter how much testing he did. I see this a lot with small spots that open because the owner loves the thing (coffee, bikes, whatever) and the math was doomed from day one. Your mower rule works because you already know the jobs pay, so the risk is low, but some businesses just don't have enough customers who want the product at a price that keeps the lights on. Testing tells you that faster, sure, but it doesn't save a bad idea. Sometimes the lesson isn't "run the numbers first," it's "pick a thing people actually need.
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davidwilliams27d ago
Been there with a bike repair stand at the farmers market. Thought cyclists would line up for quick fixes, found out they'd rather limp home than pay $15 for a tube swap. The test told me in two weekends what would've taken a year and a lease to figure out. So yeah, testing won't fix a bad idea, but at least it fails cheap.
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